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Economic calendar

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HiAll
Monday, 25 March
2019-03-25
Summary of Opinions
This report includes the BOJ's projection for inflation and economic growth. It's the primary tool the BOJ uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2019-03-25
Corporate Service Price Index (Feb)

Change in the price of services purchased by corporations. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

Previous
1.1%
Forecast
1.2%
Current
-
Tuesday, 26 March
2019-03-26
FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member( March 2011 - today) Eric S. Rosengren to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2019-03-26
BOJ Core CPI (Feb)
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.
Previous
0.5%
Forecast
-
Current
-
2019-03-26
GfK Consumer Climate (Apr)

The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.

Previous
10.8
Forecast
10.8
Current
-
2019-03-26
GDP (4 quarter)

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

Previous
0.3% q/q;
0.9% y/y
Forecast
0.3% q/q;
0.9% y/y
Current
-
2019-03-26
FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2019-03-26
High Street Lending (Feb)
Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by High Street banks during the previous month. High Street banks make up around 65% of total UK mortgage lending. It's a leading indicator of housing market demand – most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market.
Previous
40.6K
Forecast
39.4K
Current
-
2019-03-26
FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks

Charles L. Evans is the ninth President and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. In that capacity, he serves on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy-making body.

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2019-03-26
BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent Speaks
Ben Broadbent became Deputy Governor on 1 July 2014. Prior to that, he was an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee from 1 June 2011. In addition to his membership of the Monetary Policy Committee and Financial Policy Committee, he has specific responsibility within the Bank for Monetary Policy, including monetary analysis and notes.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2019-03-26
Building Permits (Feb)

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

Previous
1345K;
1.4%
Forecast
1300K;
-1.3%
Current
-
2019-03-26
Housing Starts (Feb)

Gauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.

Previous
1230K;
18.6%
Forecast
1220K;
-0.8%
Current
-
2019-03-26
House Price Index (Jan)

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.

Previous
0.3%
Forecast
0.4%
Current
-
2019-03-26
Case-Shiller 20 City (Jan)
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.
Previous
4.2%
Forecast
4.3%
Current
-
2019-03-26
Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

Previous
131.4
Forecast
132.1
Current
-
2019-03-26
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

Previous
16
Forecast
12
Current
-
2019-03-26
RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks
Christopher Kent is Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor since February 2012. He is responsible for the Bank’s Economic Analysis and Economic Research Departments. He is also Chief Economic Adviser to the RBA Governor. His comments may cast light on the regulator’s position and the Australian dollar exchange rate.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
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