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Economic calendar

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Wednesday, 12 August
2020-08-12
Business Investment (2 quarter)

The change in capital expenditures made by private firms. Businesses only invest when they are optimistic about future economic growth and expect a profitable return on their investments. Because of this, increased capital expenditures usually reflect a higher level of consumer demand that induces companies to expand their productive capacity. Current Business Investment usually allow for higher GDP in the future. For these reasons Business Investment may lead economic growth.

The headline number is the percentage change in investment from the previous quarter.

Previous
-0.3% q/q;
0.8% y/y
Forecast
-30.0% q/q;
-8.8% y/y
Current
-31.4% q/q;
-31.3% y/y
2020-08-12
Gross Domestic Product (Jul)

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

Previous
-0.1% m/m;
-0.3% y/y
Forecast
-0.1% m/m;
-0.3% y/y
Current
-0.2% m/m;
-0.4% y/y
Soon...
2020-08-12
Industrial Production (Jun)

Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Eurozone GDP. However, most variations in the GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.

Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production.

Previous
12.4% m/m;
-20.9% y/y
Forecast
10.1% m/m;
-11.5% y/y
Current
-
2020-08-12
10-y Bond Auction (Aug)
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
Previous
-0.46%;
1.8
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-12
Consumer Price Index (Jul)

CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

On A Technical Note: The CPI includes over 200 categories of goods and services included, divided into 8 main groups, each with a different weight: Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical Care, Education and Communication, Recreation, Apparel, and Other Goods and Services.

Previous
0.6% m/m;
0.6% y/y
Forecast
0.3% m/m;
0.8% y/y
Current
-
2020-08-12
Consumer Price Index Core (Jul)

CPI Excluding Food and Energy - United States

The CPI is also reported excluding food and energy; two of its most volatile components. These components are particularly sensitive to temporary economic factors like oil prices, natural disasters and seasonal affects. Consequently, CPI excluding Food and Energy provides a more stable figure, but at the cost of overlooking two significant sectors in the economy (together food and energy comprise nearly a quarter of the goods included in the CPI).

The figure is the monthly percent change in the index.

Previous
0.2% m/m;
1.2% y/y
Forecast
0.2% m/m;
1.1% y/y
Current
-
2020-08-12
FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member( March 2011 - today) Eric S. Rosengren to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-12
Crude Oil Inventories (Aug)

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Previous
-7373K
Forecast
-3400K
Current
-
2020-08-12
FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-12
10-y Bond Auction (Aug)
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
Previous
0.653%;
2.62
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-12
Federal Budget Balance (Jul)

This is a report which measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

Previous
-864.1bln
Forecast
-138.3bln
Current
-
2020-08-12
Food Price (Jul)

Measures the price change of food and food services purchased by households. Higher food prices can result in economic slowdown because less disposable income will be used for non-food expenditures. Higher food prices can also result in inflation and signal future monetary action.

Higher domestic food prices may also suggest higher food prices internationally. New Zealand 's economy is largely based on producing and exporting agricultural goods and food products. Therefore, the Food Price Index can reflect demand for New Zealand products and for the New Zealand dollar. A higher reading may suggest a strengthening of the Dollar as foreigners pay relatively more for New Zealand 's exports.

The headline number is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.

Previous
0.5%
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-12
RICS House Price Balance (Jul)

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. The figure is based on surveyors' opinions on the state of the market, calculated as is the percent of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall. A rise in house prices indicates a strong housing market, which generally reflects a strong overall economy.

Previous
-15%
Forecast
-5%
Current
-
2020-08-12
Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (Jul)

A Japanese index that measures the prices of goods created by firms at the producer and wholesaler level in Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) tracks changes in supply side prices within the Japanese economy. Changes in the CGPI often precede changes in the overall Consumer Price Index, as input values determine the overall retail values of the consumer goods. Thus, a large increase in the domestic CGPI will lead to a large increase in the overall CPI.

Previous
0.6% m/m;
-1.6% y/y
Forecast
0.3% m/m;
-1.1% y/y
Current
-
Thursday, 13 August
2020-08-13
Consumer Inflation Expectation (Aug)

The percent by which, according to consumers expectations, the prices for goods and services will change over the next 12 months.

Previous
3.2%
Forecast
3.4%
Current
-
2020-08-13
Unemployment Rate (Jul)

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

Previous
7.4%
Forecast
7.8%
Current
-
2020-08-13
Employment Change (Jul)

Tracks the number of the employed in Australia . The figure appears in the monthly Labour Force Survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures, which the RBA often counters with rate increases.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change in employed workers.

Previous
210.8K
Forecast
30.0K
Current
-
2020-08-13
Part Time Employment Change (Jul)

Modern award usually defines a part-time employee as an employee who is engaged to work less than an average of 38 ordinary hours per week and whose hours of work are reasonably predictable, with a guaranteed minimum number of hours of work. Work is usually performed on regular days of the week. A part-time employee will usually be entitled to the same employment conditions as a full-time employee, but on a pro rata basis compared to the full-time hours (usually 38 per week) prescribed under the applicable industrial instrument.

Previous
-38.1K;
249.0K
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-13
Participation Rate (Jul)

A measure of the active portion of an economy's labor force. The participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate. During an economic recession, many workers often get discouraged and stop looking for employment, as a result, the participation rate decreases.

Previous
64.0%
Forecast
64.4%
Current
-
2020-08-13
CPI (Jul)

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

Previous
-0.5% m/m;
-0.1% y/y
Forecast
-0.5% m/m;
-0.1% y/y
Current
-
2020-08-13
Harmonized CPI (Jul)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

Previous
-0.5% m/m;
0.0% y/y
Forecast
-0.5% m/m;
0.0% y/y
Current
-
2020-08-13
Wholesale Price Index (Jul)

Measures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.

Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.

Previous
0.6% m/m;
-3.3% y/y
Forecast
0.4% m/m
Current
-
2020-08-13
CPI (Jul)

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

Previous
-0.6%
Forecast
-0.6%
Current
-
2020-08-13
Import price index (Jul)

This index reflects import price change per month.

Previous
1.4% m/m;
-3.8% y/y
Forecast
0.6% m/m;
-1.7% y/y
Current
-
2020-08-13
Unemployment Claims (Aug)

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Previous
1186K
Forecast
1200K
Current
-
2020-08-13
Continuing Claims (Aug)

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

Previous
16107K
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-13
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Aug)

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

Previous
33bln
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-13
30-y Bond Auction (Aug)
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.
Previous
1.330%;
2.50
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-13
Business NZ Manufacturing Index (Jul)

Индикатор активности в производстве. Аналог Manufacturing PMI. Показывает улучшение (>50) или ухудшение (<50) ситуации в сравнении с предыдущим месяцем. Рост показателя либо превышение прогноза благоприятны для валюты.

Previous
56.3
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-13
Producer Price Index (2 quarter)
In New Zealand, the Producer Price Index measures the average change in price of goods and services sold by manufacturers and producers in the wholesale market during a given period.
Previous
-0.3%q/q;
0.1% q/q
Forecast
-
Current
-
2020-08-13
RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speaks
RBA Governor Oct 2016 - Sep 2023. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Previous
-
Forecast
-
Current
-
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