To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the purchase of the pound after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2921. On the 5-minute chart, a quick breakdown of 1.2921 led to a sharp increase in the pair against the background of the demolition of sellers' stop orders, however, it was not possible to wait for a convenient entry point to long positions on the top-down test of this area. As a result, according to my trading system, I was not able to enter long positions. Now, the main task of the bulls is to keep the pair above the level of 1.2921, and if the pound falls to this range, you can expect re-loading buyers into the market. However, be careful, as we are waiting for a report on the volume of retail sales in the United States, which can significantly affect the dollar. In case of good data and lack of activity in the support area of 1.2921, I recommend that you postpone long positions until the test of a larger minimum of 1.2843, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. If the data disappoints buyers of the US dollar, then a break and consolidation above 1.2991 will form an additional entry point into long positions, the main goal of which will be to update the maximum of 1.3103, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, such a large increase in the pound can only be expected if the Federal Reserve takes a very conservative approach to monetary policy.
To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need to:
The bears did not have enough strength to defend the resistance of 1.2921 for the fourth time, which led to its breakdown and the growth of the pound in the first half of the day. Now the task of sellers is to regain control over this level, since only after this can we expect a larger drop in GBP/USD. This can be done only if data on the volume of retail trade in the United States will come out much better than economists' forecasts. A test of this level on the reverse side forms a good entry point for short positions that aim at a minimum of 1.2843, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of further growth of GBP/USD, the bears will need quite a bit of effort to protect the resistance of 1.2991. Only the formation of a false breakout on it will be a signal to sell the pound. I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only after testing the maximum of 1.3103, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the continuation of the formation of an upward correction.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
If the pound declines, the lower border of the indicator around 1.2843 will provide support, from where I recommend buying the pair immediately for a rebound.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.