To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
I paid attention to purchases above the level of 1.1854 in my morning forecast. On the 5-minute chart, the bulls took advantage of the moment and fixed above the range of 1.1854. It was then followed by a test from top to bottom and continued to push the euro up in the expectation of a return to the 20th figure after the Federal Reserve meeting. As long as trading is above the support of 1.1854, we can expect an update to yesterday's high of 1.1900, which will be the main task for the afternoon. You can add to long positions only after a weak report on the volume of retail trade in the United States, which may affect the Fed's decisions in the short term. Keeping monetary policy unchanged will put pressure on the US dollar and lead to the growth of the euro. A break of 1.1900 will open an opportunity to buy EUR/USD with the aim of updating the maximum of 1.1949, however, the further level will be the area of 1.1994, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bears manage to move EUR/USD under the support level of 1.1854 in the afternoon, it is best to postpone long positions until the 1.1800 support is updated or buy the euro immediately for a rebound from the month's lows in the area of 1.1756, based on a correction of 20-30 points.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
The task of sellers is to return EUR/USD to the level of 1.1854, as it depends on whether the euro will continue to grow to new weekly highs or not. A test of the level of 1.1854 on the reverse side on the volume forms a good entry point for short positions, similar to yesterday, with the main goal of updating the minimum of 1.1800, where I recommend fixing the profits. The area of 1.1756 will be a more distant support level, however, it will also not be very easy to reach it without support from the good macroeconomic indicators for the United States, which are expected in the country this afternoon. If the demand for EUR/USD continues, it is best not to rush with sales, but wait for the resistance test of 1.1905 and open short positions from there, but subject to the formation of a false breakdown. It is best to sell the euro immediately for a rebound from the more recent high of 1.1949, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a lull before the release of important fundamental data.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1830 will provide support.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.