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flag - Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 09/11/2019 and trading recommendation

Forex Analysis:::2019-09-11

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 09/11/2019 and trading recommendation

With an unarmed look, you can see how the market froze in anticipation of tomorrow's European Central Bank meeting. Fortunately, there was a temporary lull in the United Kingdom, and the warring parties scattered in their corners to prepare for the next round. So the information background was clearly calm. In addition, even serious macroeconomic data were not published, except for JOLTS data on open vacancies in the United States, which showed a decrease from 7,248 to 7,217. But the data themselves are not so important and the changes are not significant. So the market participants really had no reason for any drastic actions.


There is practically no doubt that the same picture will continue today. Moreover, unexpectedly revised forecasts for producer prices in the United States. If yesterday they predicted an acceleration of their growth, now it is expected that they will remain unchanged. In other words, if British politicians do not turn upside down again, then nothing will be able to move the quotes from the spot. Inventories in wholesale warehouses in the United States are certainly not capable of this. Although they should grow by 0.2%, which implies that they have been growing for twenty-two months in a row, and this is not such a good indicator, since it indicates a growing crisis of overproduction. However, this data is not so important. Rather, they only partially characterize the state of industry and consumer activity. As a result, stagnation is expected to continue today, and we have the opportunity to gain strength before tomorrow's fun.

Manufacturer Prices (United States of America):


After a formation of the correction course, the EUR/USD pair found the resistance level in the region of 1.1080, where after that the flat range 1.1015/1.1065 was formed through a temporary accumulation process. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see that the main downward trend is maintained in the market, we do not have the prerequisites for its change. In turn, the formed accumulation serves as an excellent platform for stopping and a possible change of trading forces.

It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within the specified limits of 1.1015/1.1065 will still persist during the day, where traders are preparing for the upcoming ECB meeting and in this case, the tactics are built in terms of monitoring the boundaries for a breakdown.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

• Long positions, if we consider them, then only in the case of a clear consolidation of the price higher than 1.1080, not a puncture shadow.

• We consider short positions if prices are consolidated lower than 1.1015, but in this case it is advised not to rush and wait for the price to go beyond the psychological level of 1.1000.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see a versatile interest, which reflects the accumulation process. So indicators on minute intervals are variably prone to decline, but hourly areas, on the contrary, are focused on returning prices to the upper limit of accumulation. In turn, the day period took an optimal neutral position, which confirms the accumulation process itself.


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